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Originally Posted by Rerun
After seeing how completely f####d up the polls were in our last provincial election, I would trust somebody reading tea leaves more.
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To be fair I felt as though there was a definate movement in the final days that couldn't have been captured in the polls. Although the firm that ran that poll has had a few poor showings lately and it's 3+ years until the next federal election so polls taken now are pretty meaningless.
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Originally Posted by c.t.ner
It also doesn't help that the Conservatives are going to be in a massive Catch 22 situation with the BC pipeline and are eventually going to be put in a tough spot against their base in BC or Alberta.
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Nah, they'll just declare it a provincial matter and punt the issue altogether. Or at least they should, it's what I'd do if I were they.
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Ya, I'm surprised that we haven't seen Mulcair ads yet actually.
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I've seen them... they were pretty mild. Winning the majority (and thus no longer needing to be in perpetual campaign mode) took a lot of bite out of the CPC attack machine. I don't anticipate we'll see much in the way of it until 2015. When it comes for Trudeau I don't see it as being as effective as it's been in the past. I mean the function of their earlier attacks was to define the opponent before he can define himself and Justin Trudeau has been in the spotlight (off and on) since the day he was born so he's a fairly known quantity (more people already have opinions on him) and the default attacks I've seen conservative partisans foist on him have basically been "he's Pierre Trudeau's son" which is a pretty weak attack since it says nothing about him personally.