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Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
^ You are of course assuming a) Trudeau wins the nomination (I don't think he will)
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Based on all the potential candidate names out there (and I don't include Carney in this lot), I think he has a good chance at winning. The Trudeau name carries a lot of magic in the Liberal Party and I suspect he will get a ton of endorsement from all the old PET cronies who are still around.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
b) Harper won't screw up (bringing up abortion is a can of kerosene, bringing up other social issues will burn their party down)
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Abortion is a non-starter with Harper. As for other social issues, Harper has proven to be pretty middle of the road when it comes down to that. He's a very intelligent man and he knows which side his bread is buttered on. Thinking otherwise goes completely against his track record on social issues.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
c) That the NDP will fade. The conservatives barely got a majority the last time, and with more variables this time around, be praying they can actually hold on to a minority before you start thinking majority.
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The current NDP party is a house of cards and Mulcair is the biggest wildcard out there. The CPC can barely wait to get into a knockdown and dirty election fight with this guy because of all the ammo they have on the guy. As for how well the NDP did in Quebec in the last election... that was a fluke. People just parked their vote there because they didn't want to vote for anybody else. That won't happen again. The NDP will lose seats and the Liberals will probably gain seats in Quebec, but Harper and the Conservatives will probably still win again overall because at this moment in time, there isn't anybody out there that can legitimately challenge him.