Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
^ You are of course assuming a) Trudeau wins the nomination (I don't think he will), b) Harper won't screw up (bringing up abortion is a can of kerosene, bringing up other social issues will burn their party down) and c) That the NDP will fade. The conservatives barely got a majority the last time, and with more variables this time around, be praying they can actually hold on to a minority before you start thinking majority.
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I totally agree. In my opinion, the Conservatives are really going to have a difficult time of holding on to Majority. I can see a minority, but I don't think they'll get a second run at a Majority. Interesting enough, I don't think it'll matter whether or not Justin is the Leader of the Liberals or not.
Basically if you step outside of Alberta, the ebb and flow of Canadian politics is definitively not in favour with the Conservatives. Counting their minority years, by 2015 they'll be in power 7 years, with Harper as the leader for close to ten years. I see Harper's Conservatives following the same steps as Mulroney's PCs and Chretians Liberals and the general Canadian populace growing weary of them. Obviously, Mulroney went down because of the GST and the Liberals were eventually destroyed by the sponsorship scandal, but it can also be tied to a general electorate ebb and flow.
Is there going to be a massive scandal or policy that breaks the general opinion of the Conservatives? I don't think so, but the small controversies are starting to add up. Things like the Robo scandal, The Abortion Bill, The Online Spying bill, The F-35 Debacle, etc., etc., are eventually going to turn off enough people to make a dramatic switch back to either the Liberals or NDP in Ontario or BC. It also doesn't help that the Conservatives are going to be in a massive Catch 22 situation with the BC pipeline and are eventually going to be put in a tough spot against their base in BC or Alberta.
And as much as I'm not a fan of the NDP, I wouldn't discount them. Unlike the Liberals for the past two elections, the NDP appear to be fully prepared (and funded) to campaign in the same manner as the Conservatives.
Either way, I think 2015 is going to be a fascinating election.