I don't know, I mean the original Spider-Man opened so huge (breaking almost all the BO opening records at the time) I can see why they would expect it to perform well. Plus obviously Marvel was on some kind of roll coming into this movie that you can't blame them for shooting for the moon.
I think where Sony and Marvel ultimately failed is in selling the ASM as being radically different than the other Spider-Man series. Most of the ads made it look like it wasn't all that different except for new faces in old places. Because it didn't seem that dissimilar to the other Spider-Man movies, I think those who didn't like Spider-Man 3 felt this movie was unjustified.
For the record, I thought the ASM was probably better than all the Raimi movies (well not SM2), but concede it simply wasn't justified so soon.
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"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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