It hasn't been confirmed whether or not they are making a 3rd film, they've just been discussing it with the head of the studio.
Also, you have no way of knowing whether the source material doesn't call for three films if they indeed do go ahead and shoot more footage (would require another 2+ months of shooting and they would need to re-negotiate contracts, etc). The two films they have now aren't just The Hobbit, but also include short stories, etc. of the Tolkien universe.
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