Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
1 in 20 chance of dying each year
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According to the Canadian Professional Chuckwagon Association FAQ, "on average drivers will haul 14-16 horses to a show depending on how many they own and who they feel is in the best condition to race" and "a number of drivers who have experienced success have upwards of 30 horses or more".
Since we're talking about the Stampede specifically, if we use the first number and call it 15 then you're looking at a 1/270 chance of dying each year at the Stampede (assuming an average of two deaths a year). If we assume that each driver owns an average of maybe 22 horses (which could be low) and assuming that they are all rotated through the lineup equally, that number drops to nearly 1/400. Although this doesn't take into account other chuckwagon events, I'm thinking your number of 1 in 20 isn't even in the same area code as the ballpark.
Edit: Which I realize, of course, strengthens your point.