Quote:
Originally Posted by schooner
I believe he was trying to show a causal relationship between two variables, birth month and future success, rather then advising on how to evalulate hockey players. Certainly if a player young in his age group was showing more progress then his older peers that would be a positive sign, but I dont think he was suggesting that NHL teams target promising players born in the later part of the year. To him it was more of a statistical analysis to predict who may or may not become a successful NHLer, most of all, later birth month players have to overcome much greater odds. By his studies Jankowski should be a dud.
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You should go back and re-read that chapter because that's not his point.
His point is that when you're born matters and that that usually is unfair for players like hockey players. He specifically says that younger players should be treated the same as older ones even though they aren't as 'good' because they're younger. If that's the case when the maturation process is over, many many good players that could have been pros aren't targetted because of our narrow focus on statistics for success.