Assuming Mexico wins tonight and the US wins tomorrow, the tie-breaking situation isn't very good for Canada:
USA: 8 runs against in games amongst tied teams
Mexico: 2 runs against + Canada's runs tomorrow
Canada: 6 runs against + Mexico's runs tomorrow
This means that if Canada loses tomorrow, they have to hold Mexico to 2 runs or less to advance. If they were to lose 1-0 tomorrow, the US would be eliminated and Canada and Mexico would advance. It's strange how the second tiebreaker (after runs allowed average) is earned runs allowed. So if Canada loses 2-0 or 2-1, but one of those runs is unearned, we advance. If we allow exactly two earned runs, it goes to the next tie-breaker, batting average. The US has 15 hits in the Canada and Mexico games, so to win the third tiebreaker, Canada would need just three hits. At least, that's what I make from the weird tie-breaking system they're using. Hopefully Mexico will lose tonight and tomorrow's game will simply determine whether Canada finishes first or second in the pool.
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