Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
That poll has to be pretty troubling to the Conservatives future. That a guy who has name recognition alone can automatically put them ahead (and 10 points ahead at that) says to me as long as the Liberals field a competent leader, that the best case scenario for the Conservatives in 2015 is a minority again.
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I think that's likely to happen regardless. Both the NDP and the Harper Conservatives peaked in the last election, IMO. Realistically, I can't see the CPC picking up any more seats than they already have -- where would they come from: Quebec, the GTA, other urban centers? Those all seems unlikely. Not to mention much of Harper's soft support is evaporating after the recent missteps by the Conservatives, although that might be forgotten by 2015 if he can govern responsibly over the remaining years of his mandate.
Similarly, I think the NDP surge was largely based around Jack Layton's personal popularity. I doubt many of those rookie parachute candidates in Quebec will win re-election, likely losing their seats to the BQ or
maybe the Liberals depending on their leader.