I see it playing out like this:
Russia takes group A easily. That group is incredibly weak.
Netherlands have a slip up despite being favored to advance and Germany and Portugal make it through. I could even see all three teams having identical records of 1W-1L-1D or something like that and it coming down to a tiebreaker. Or maybe Portugal catches the Dutch or Germans off guard and takes a W. Or maybe Denmark play spoiler by getting a draw against the Dutch and losing to Ger and Portugal.
Spain will win their group easily only because I see Italy totally sucking again like they did in 2010. I picked Ireland in 2nd even though Croatia is probably the stronger side because there is a chance that Ireland beats Italy in a huge upset and the Italians hold Croatia to a draw. This could be especially true if the Italians lose their opener to Spain, draw Croatia and head into the final match with Ireland having a chance to win to advance (with Spain beating Croatia in the other final day match).
England and France play at or above expectations, especially England, and easily come out of D.
The Spain team is incredibly overworked in the last 2 years and run out of gas in the Semi against Portugal. They've got enough to knock off France in the QF but not much more.
Germany coast through to the Final with their only real challenge coming in the form of a SF matchup against the English. Despite England having a somewhat successful tourney they aren't as powerful and fall to ze Germans.
Germany takes the final. They seem to have one of the healthier squads at the tourney and I think that could be the difference with fatigue playing such a factor in a short tourney at the end of a long season for some of these players.
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