Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain_Obvious
Because whether or not he'll re-offend is an unknown quantity, so trying to put a percentage on it is by definition guess work. Even if it's an educated guess.
All I said is that I think trying to give it a specific value is silly. "A very low chance" would suffice.
Seems like a really minor point to take issue with in the context of the conversation. Especially when my point really had nothing to do with their low estimate on the chance he'll re-offend. I said Even if there were a way to peg the chance at less than 1% I still think his crime should revoke his right to walk around.
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Actually, what you said was "It's nothing but guesswork," and that's what I asked about. I was wondering how you know it to be guesswork without knowing any of the processes the doctors used to come to this conclusion, and, now that you mention it, how you know it to be silly. Now, obviously, whether he'll re-offend or not is an unknown quantity -- that's why they attached a percentage to it, and didn't say
he will definitely not re-offend. That would have been a guess. What was used is something called objective probability; probability derived from analysis and evidence. If it were subjective probability, then, yes, you'd be right -- it would be a guess. But
by definition, it's not.
In case you don't understand what I'm getting at it's this: none of us posting here (to my knowledge) are psychiatrists. Posting definitive statements as if we are is not conducive to intelligent discussion.
Also, I wasn't involved in your other conversation, so I'm not commenting on that.