Watching Carroll the last month or two, I'm not surprised he's there.
It's easy to look at stats and say he shouldn't be, but he has absolutely dominated games recently. When he plays with confidence, he can really do some damage. His holdup play has improved tremendously from last season, and he wins everything in the air. Liverpool's attack has been inept this year, but with a different supporting cast hopefully he will shine.
Downing is a real shocker though. He's had one good game recently, but hit the post twice including on a penalty. He's the opposite of good form and/or confidence.
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