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Getting back to Favre and Elway, I'm not sure if you were lumping Elway in with Favre on your 10% chance of success thing, but if you were, you must also realize that no Qb in NFL history has won more games than John Elway. Much of his career he had nothing around him. It was only in the last 4 years or so that he actually had some talent on offense. He single handedly got them to the Super Bowl 3 times (with the help of an undersized but gritty defense). I can tell you for a fact had he not had the balls to make some of the throws he did (i.e. make the smart play instead) in the championship games against Cleveland (both of them) the Browns would've been in the Super Bowl twice. Elway made throws no other QB could make and he did it in less than ideal conditions.
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Nope, I do not think Elway is or was overrated. I'm not too sure I agree with you that he had nothing around him in his early years, but that's not really important. I also think you are underestimating the talent Green Bay had in the mid to late 90's when Favre was at his peak. I think the key difference between the two guys is that I can point to numerous playoff games Favre singlehandedly lost the game, whereas I'm not sure if Elway crapped the bed for the Broncos too many times (they were badly overmatched in the Super Bowl losses).
On Brady, I also agree. Patriots have mediocre talent on offense at best, especially before they got Dillon, and Brady managed to make that team great. I'm personally not a fan of Captain America, but I don't think any quarterback in the league has accomplished as much with as little.
Kind of related to the Terrell Davis point - where do you see Priest Holmes now that his career is probably done (from a #1 back perspective at the minimum). Personally, I think he's marginally ahead of Davis in terms of where he fits in the line-up to get into the HOF, but not sure I'd put him in either.