Quote:
Originally Posted by Tinordi
For that I think the brand is tainted now and will require not just soul searching in the party but a coring out of many of the factors that brought people into the party in the first place to be able to compete with the broad swath of moderate, generally unassociated/undecided voters. Because don't fool yourself, amidst the polling trends leading up to election day this was as strong of a repudiation of a party and it's ideas as I've ever witnessed from a group of voters that not only woke up but reversed against the change narrative with days and hours left.
What will happen with that coring out? Will the party lose its base, mobilization and momentum? Who knows. I do think there is a chance for teh wildrose to present themselves as a moderate conservative party that can credibly govern for the betterment of Albertans. I would use these four years to reign in significantly the wingnuts (kick them out) and build a plank that was a credible alternative to government. Basically, they need to emulate the federal conservative strategy and then lie in wait and hope that the PCs shoot themselves in the foot. How this will rest with their vocal, unwieldy and influential base remains to be seen if the party can transition to one of happenstance populism to one that can govern.
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The funny thing is, the result we got is just about what I've been predicting (though with a few fewer seats) since Smith became leader. Even when she briefly passed the Stelmach PCs in the polls and people started asking if she could form government, I figured the tide would break. But for those damned election polls that got everyone's hopes up (or down, as the case may be).
Your last paragraph there is the key. Wildrose did start as a small, very right party. But as it has grown, that faction will become marginalized. With 35% support, there is greater opportunity to find those better candidates. And with 17 MLAs and official opposition status - all elected as Wildrose - there is the opportunity to show they can be an effective government in waiting. But Smith and co. had a lot of work to do to get from here to there.
But going back to my polarization comments, if Wildrose can grab more of the centre, the PCs are going to have to push harder for more of the left. If Redford is smart, she would actively court more of the right and recover as much of the traditional base as she can.