Quote:
Originally Posted by Tinordi
If PC's hold onto their right flank then Wildrose is destined for the dust heap. Far right parties simply have limited appeal to the median voter - the voter you need to capture to win elections.
Barring major scandal, economic upheaval, or the emergence of a viable governing alternative on the left, the PCs are on solid ground.
I predict that this is Wildrose's zenith.
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You do not need the median voter under first-past-the-post, which is one of it's biggest flaws. However, governing without the median voter is a precarious position, as it puts pressure on the opposition parties to merge.
The PCs will struggle to keep both their right and left flanks (especially given that the left flank is strategic-voting liberals). There is always pressure to shrink the tent to the minimum required for a majority.
I do think that the PCs are perhaps better off without their right flank. They are much more palatable to centrists without the extremists. They have a firmer grasp on the median voter now (Stelmach held the median voter, but barely), but the downside is that the left is more fractured than the right so they will have to contend with more vote splitting on their new path.