Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
Sure. I think the questions are more about the huge discrepancy between the polling earlier and the actuals. Unless you told pollsters you were voting WRP and changed your mind?
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At first glance, the polling numbers look way off, but that's not necessarily the case. wrp support was off by about 3%, and lib and ndp off by 1-2%. None of that is unusual. the thing is, all these people had the same second choice. Wrp supporters that got worried about the nutters turned to the pcs because it was their second choice. Ndp and lib supporters turned to pcs to stop said nutters. Not surprising then to see such a jump in pc support. Usually, late movement is more mixed than this time.
But the proportional swing model also is to blame. It's a good model most of the time, but every now and then it gets blown out of the water. Threehundredeight.com had the libs getting 11%, and zero seats. Instead, they're at 10%, and 4 seats. I knew something was screwy with the model this time around when they showed Swann losing by 20%, even though all signs on the ground said he'd be safe.