View Single Post
Old 04-23-2012, 01:17 PM   #104
EddyBeers
Lifetime Suspension
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed View Post
Three Hundred Eight has Incumbent Liberal MLA Darshan Kang recieving a maximum of 24% of the vote, with the average of 19.7%, and finishing in third place.

There's ZERO chance that it's going to be that low, IMO. I stand by my claim that it's going to be a fairly close three way race, and I can't see Kang finishing lower than second place.
308 is not a great site in my opinion, the methodology is questionable in my opinion. I think there are a number of factors that indicate how an election will go:

1) Public polling
2) Fundraising Numbers
3) Public Momentum
4) Higher voter turnout is almost always bad for the governing party

All of those factors are against the PC Party. With that in mind, I have the following prediction

Wildrose 42% of the vote, 51 seats
PC Party 35 of the vote, 31 seats
NDP 12% of the vote, 4 seats
Liberals 10 of the vote, 2 seats.

I have a hard time seeing the Wild Rose with less than 18 seats in Calgary, less than 28 in rural Alberta and less than 4 in Edmonton due to vote splits.
EddyBeers is offline   Reply With Quote