Quote:
Originally Posted by darklord700
The Forum poll is really funny. The WR loses seats to NDP and Lib, I find that hard to believe. It says NDP and Lib will win a combined 22 seats. I can see that PC picks up seats at the expense of WR but not NDP/Lib.
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I'm pretty sure the Forum poll shows NDP/Libs at a combined 22% of the popular vote, not 22 seats. I don't think anyone seriously thinks they'll get close to that.
If the Forum poll is accurate (and the "weekend poll" thing is somewhat controversial--clearly, when you call on the weekend more people are at home, so you tend to get a different demographic than during the week) then I think the Wild Rose should be alarmed. It would reflect significant tightening in the race, along with significant volatility in their numbers. They may well be feeling the effects of Leech-gate and Hunsberger-gate finally.
Of course, it's also possible that the poll reflects statistical noise, or sampling error due to being a weekend poll (though I've never really understood how that's supposed to work--I'm no expert, but I would think "more people at home"=more accurate sample makeup). I'm reasonably sure the "weekend poll" effect is less significant than the "cell phone" effect that we observed in 2008 (it seems abundantly clear that pollsters who don't call cell phones get much less accurate results) but anything is possible.
I actually get the feeling that what we're seeing now is a little bit of "sober second thought." If that's the case, we could be in for an exciting night: a significant portion of voters have already cast their ballots--will that be enough to tip the WR into majority territory?
Interesting times.