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Old 04-22-2012, 09:42 PM   #1
Slava
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Default Provincial Election Poll/Prediction Thread

Mods, could you please set up a poll for people to declare their voting intentions in tomorrows election? (or if they voted in the advance poll)

I also thought it might be fun to see where people think the seats end up. Its hard to predict, obviously, but fun nonetheless. I know some people put theirs in the other election thread, but these will be buried in there if they aren't already! I'll take a stab first. I've given my brief thoughts with each seat projection:

NDP: 6

I think they manage to squeak through four more in Edmonton. That is actually a big gain for the NDP if they do this though, its official party status and tripling their current count.

Liberals: 6

I think that they win as many as 8-9 actually, but at least 3 in Calgary, perhaps 2 in Lethbridge and another 1-3 Edmonton. A lot depending on the vote splits and where the vote holds.

PC: 38

I think that they do better in Calgary than expected and manage to win some seats in Edmonton. They lose a lot of rural seats, but overall a lot of on the fence voters come back. I think that a lot of voters have a quick second thought in the booth and FPTP distortion comes to their aid to give them a minority.

Wildrose: 37

Obviously I'm predicting that this is a nail-biter and one seat is hardly a huge margin either way. I do think that things are really divided though and I think in the cities the Wildrose has more and more trouble as it gets closer to the core. That combined with that "second thought" I posed above I think leaves them just short.

Final percentages:

Wildrose: 40%
PC's 36%
Liberals: 10%
NDP: 11%
Other: 3%
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