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Originally Posted by c.t.ner
I agree with pretty much all of this. The "civil war" in the PC ranks isn't necessarily a 50%-50% split between the PCs and WRP. It's also a far more complicated mixture of people choosing sides at the moment. I think you're dead on with the current PCs acquiring a good chunk of the Liberals base and at least at the beginning of the election the WRP acquired a portion of people who didn't vote in the last election and/or finally found a more conservative option to the PCs.
There's still a large chunk of undecideds out there and it'll be interesting to see how it all pans out.
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You mention the portion of people who didn't vote in the last election. Something to consider is that in 2008 a full 10% of the Alberta population voted in the federal election but did not vote in the provincial election.
In 2008 the P.C.'s received 501,063 votes while the Federal Conservatives received 820,855. One could argue that a lot of those voters are conservative voters who did not see their ideas reflected in the PC party.