Quote:
Originally Posted by octothorp
I think provincial-level polling tends to be tremendously inaccurate (remember how the Conservatives were generally expected to lose support in 2008, according to all the poles); but there's an effect I think might make it even more inaccurate this time around. A few people I've talked with (infact, anybody I've raised the subject with) has said that they refuse to take part in any sort of robocall poll, in light of the federal robocall scandal and the possibility that these aren't actual polls and instead are either push-polls or are data-collection polls from individual parties. Admittedly, most of the people I've talked to (but not all of them) are from the left side of the spectrum, but it makes me wonder if the robocall scandal might actually have an impact on the accuracy of polling, if a significantly higher number of people are opting out of them. If that's affecting one side of the political spectrum more than the other, then it's even more problematic.
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You raise an excellent point with the robocall scandal. Public trust is tough thing to get and an even tougher thing to keep. Some people very well may have no interest in participating in the polls at present or for the forseable future. And as you mention if one voting block (the left as an example) isn't participating, it will skew the results.
And I do think losing Calgary/gaining Edmonton is strange. But wasn't Danielle in Edmonton most of last week? Could explain her bump. Losing Calgary I can't rightly explain that one...