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Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
I don't know how you infer riding-by-riding support from a province-wide poll anyway. That seems really goofy. Do they talk about their methodology?
That's not to say we aren't headed toward a WildRose government. I think we are; I just hope Albertans aren't surprised when it turns out that the party of Rod Love in 2012 is pretty much the same as the party of Rod Love in 2010, or 2009, or 2008, or you get the picture. Sometimes "voting for change" just means voting for lawn signs that are a different colour.
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Well he doesn't say who will win in each riding, he just adds projections based on the polling results. So the longer a party shows a certain trend or certain holding pattern he tries to factor that into his projections. Province-wide he gives a low/high for each party and his current thought.
I read his updates federally and as I recall he wasn't close. When I see his Calgary projection at zero Liberals though, I think he bases it entirely on the polling. Like I say, maybe Wildrose would dominate the city today, but there are still seats for the Liberals and I think seats in play in general. I think I live in a riding where the seat is up in the air really. There are quite a few signs for both the Wildrose and PCs, and its impossible to say who is winning from what I can see.