I think that Kent Hehr wins and its really not as close as people make it out to be there. The PC candidate and Wildrose are going to split that vote, and anyone who just wants anyone but WRA is going to vote for Kent there. That riding is strongly Liberal and in the civic campaign it was pro-Nenshi by a large margin (I think he got 64% of the vote there).
Add to that the fact that Kent is well respected amongst his peers, works incredibly hard for his riding and is everywhere for everything in that riding and he is hard to beat. Could it happen? Anything is possible. I really doubt it though. If the Liberals are polling at 9% in Calgary the Liberals problem is that 5% of that 9 is voting for Kent. For a little corroborated evidence look no further than the PC candidate; the PCs have some impressive candidates in Calgary but against Kent Hehr they had to parachute a young guy in from NE Calgary to run. It sometimes feels like there are no Liberals in Calgary, but trust me. The ones that are here know the drill and he'll hold that riding.
I don't know the details for Swann, but I would guess its similar.
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