Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
One of the polls released today is wrong; the other has it 37-34 for the PCs. Makes me wonder about the accuracy in general when they're off that far from each other.
|
Not "wrong" so much as lacking context. The real question is "what were the people asked"?
The Forum Research (Sun) poll is incredibly interesting though. I would want to know if they asked the same questions in their March 26 poll as they did their February 10 one. Even if you don't trust the actual numbers, if the questions are consistent, then the change from January 17 to February 10 to March 26 should be alarming for the PCs.
Unfortunately, the Wikipedia article on the election doesn't link to the actual Forum Research packs, but to the news stories. However, it does provide a good look at the polling trends over time:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Alberta_election
If you look at the trends over time, it seems that Forum has tended to rank Wildrose a little higher (and PC a lot lower) than other firms, while Leger (the other poll) ranks them a bit lower. I would not trust Forum's claim of a Wildrose majority at this point, but I would say it is pretty clear that the PCs have a problem. Wonder if they can fix it in time for April 23?