Quote:
Originally Posted by sworkhard
First, Backlund has developed this year. He's going through the so called sophomore slump for the same reason other players do; he's up against harder competition and as such has to develop in terms of defensive play and driving the play north and therefore doesn't manage to score any more than previous years. Most players don't break out until their 3rd or 4th year in the NHL, with the 4th year commonly being very close (within 25%) to their productivity throughout their prime, although usually not their peak. This applies to players who get 20 points in their 1st year and those who get 50 in their 1st year. If Backlund doesn't take a step forward next year on the score-sheet, then you have a reason to be concerned, but right now it's not really an accurate indication of his skill or compete level.
However, I do agree that in general you give the benefit of the doubt to the younger player as they have more time to develop. I think Granlund may very well have a higher offensive ceiling than Backlund since he's more successful at the same age than Backlund. He seems to score at a higher rate than Backlund has throughout his career as well. However, we've seen it before that some players suffer more than other going to the smaller ice surface. MPS in Edmonton is finally getting things going after having to adjust to the NHL and North American game. I'd expect Granlund to go through similar growing pains if he ends up coming over to play.
|
I expected a 40-50 point season from Backlund and I don't see much development compared to last year. Before this season I could see him improve but I can't honestly say that this year.
My intention wasn't to give the impression that I prefer Granlund over him or that I think the former is necessarily more talented than the latter. It's an open question, and I think the player who has already shown he can play in NA has to be seen as more successful. I just pointed out that there's a temptation to see the younger player as more talented simply because you're looking at unfulfilled potential against someone who's already had to do whatever it takes to get to the NHL.