Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry Fool
Since Backlund hasn't developed this year, it's tempting to say that the younger player has a higher ceiling. Tough to say. Granlund could well be more talented offensively, and he's already more succesful in his native country than Backlund was, but Mikael is an NHL player and Markus may never be good enough overall to get to the highest level.
I don't watch the finnish league nearly enough to act as an expert. Ideally the finnish updates would be made by someone who watches regularly. I could say a couple of things. First of all, the brother's haven't been so magical together in every game. And second, it seems to me that Markus has been scoring with other players as well, especially lately. It's certainly not just him connecting with his brother, even when they're on the same line.
I assume Markus has military next summer and during next season like his brother did this year. Also school. So I don't see him playing junior in NA nor do I see any reason for him to do that. Sometimes people forget that the prospects in Europe have a lot going on at this point in their careers. Consider how much Mikael has had on his plate this season: military service, finishing school, U20 national team, men's national team in the spring (he skipped the other tournaments), media demands being that he's one of the most interesting players in Finland, while at the same time being the MVP of his team. So when he looked a little less energetic at the WJC than we would have liked, I felt for him. Markus isn't going to have it nearly as tough but it's still going to be a challenge.
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First, Backlund has developed this year. He's going through the so called sophomore slump for the same reason other players do; he's up against harder competition and as such has to develop in terms of defensive play and driving the play north and therefore doesn't manage to score any more than previous years. Most players don't break out until their 3rd or 4th year in the NHL, with the 4th year commonly being very close (within 25%) to their productivity throughout their prime, although usually not their peak. This applies to players who get 20 points in their 1st year and those who get 50 in their 1st year. If Backlund doesn't take a step forward next year on the score-sheet, then you have a reason to be concerned, but right now it's not really an accurate indication of his skill or compete level.
However, I do agree that in general you give the benefit of the doubt to the younger player as they have more time to develop. I think Granlund may very well have a higher offensive ceiling than Backlund since he's more successful at the same age than Backlund. He seems to score at a higher rate than Backlund has throughout his career as well. However, we've seen it before that some players suffer more than other going to the smaller ice surface. MPS in Edmonton is finally getting things going after having to adjust to the NHL and North American game. I'd expect Granlund to go through similar growing pains if he ends up coming over to play.