It is fair to say that both the Pats and Giants are lucky to be playing in the SB, they got in on their opponents' mistake and not entirely on the merits of their own play.
However, I think the Giants are luckier in this regard. Fumble and fumble recovery have a high level of luck involved which was how the Giants won. The Pats got in by a non-catch. But a non-catch is a non-catch no matter how close the catch could have been.
So I predict a Pats win two weeks from now.
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