Quote:
Originally Posted by Calgaryborn
Look at the Republican primaries. The social conservatives have been a non factor. Perry was the closest to making some noise but, as soon as he opened his mouth he dropped in the polls. Cain and then Gingrich topped the polls for awhile on the merit of what they had to say. Both guys came across as someone with a plan. Cain's plan didn't include any comprehensive foriegn policy vision. I think that hurt him more then the sexual accusations. Gingrich has been losing ground because of both sides focus on his political past. The divorces hasn't seemed to hurt him but his politics has.
This leaves Romney who has the resume and the organization. What he has lacked is a plan he has been able to communicate. I know he lays a lot out on his web site but, at the debates he always appeared to be more interested in selling Romney the man than putting forward any solutions. That approach has only netted him about 25% of the vote. People won't embrace him fully until he can convince them he has got a plan.
Obama won last time on not much more than a slogan of "hope and change". I believe this time you will see a lot of undecided right into September. The winner will be the one with the more believable plan. The details will mean everything.
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And that's what's going to make this a close race then people think. Obama can't really stand on his record on the economy and people aren't going to buy a vague hope and change Kennedyesque campaign if they're smart.
The guy that can come forward with a plain could win a close race here.
I don't have much hope if an idiot like Newt goes against Obama because the guy is slimy. But Romney might be able to pull it off based on his past record and his economic background.