[KTown]

Originally Posted by Philly06Cup

Miami with field goals from 23, 26, 27, 28.

Pitiful. When are coaches going to learn that it is mathematically advantageous to gamble on 4th down, especially in the red zone. Many papers have been written on the topic, but coaches continue to play it safe and 'take the 3 points.' (The exception, of course, would be the FG at the end of the 2nd quarter.)

eg. If you kick a FG, your expected value (EV) is 3pts (assuming you always make it). If you convert a TD on 4th down 3/7 (43%) of the time, your expected value is 3 points. Even if your conversation rate is as low as 25% (EV = 1.75pts), as long as you can stifle the offense ~35% of the time, you'll have good field position and regain those 1.25 pts you lost on your initial drive, and more.


Not going for the 2-pt convert also came back to bite them, but that one is more defensible.

Those field goals where perfect. Sparano could have kept his job by winning out, but he coaches scared and now we can hopefully fire his ars at season end and get a real coach.