[Itse]

I doubt that article based on anything. In fact, it doesn't even claim to be based on facts, just on another article by another webzine which also doesn't even attempt to explain how it came about these "news".

As to the year when digital releases will become the primary format, I think they just pulled it out of a hat. It's a pretty easy guess, it's going to happen within the next three years, no doubt. CD's obviously have been on the decline, but I doubt there will be any radical change, just more of the same decline. Recorded music is already mostly free, what we're paying for is the service that brings it to us, kind of like getting a cable deal. (Actually I predict cable TV will be a streaming service in the same style as Spotify in a decade at the latest, barring some total upheaval in economics or technology. More likely it'll take 3-5 years.)

Major labels have already cut down on releases significantly, essentially outsourcing recording and selling recorded music to minor or "independent" labels, while the major labels concentrate on the rest. Or to put it more exactly, pop-music is returning to what is normal for most other genres: you're selling the artist in various formats, mostly live performances but also merchandising and various projects, and recorded music is just a part of it all. Music business is changing in ways that are much more profound than just another technological step.

As another sidenote, most people consider vinyl to have "died" ages ago, but funnily enough there's still new vinyls coming out regurarly. It's a format among formats. The CD will be there too. A lot of people are just used to it.