Quote:
Originally Posted by photon
Direct observations show CO2 raising significantly, and the increase correlates with the time when we started burning fossil fuels.
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I remember such reports. The only thing is how much of a lag there has been with the temperature correlation. If the law holds, then our global temperature should be rising a bit faster than it has been.
Though this is something where I'd HATE to take a "wait and see" approach on. If the correlation holds to the [CO2] in the atmosphere, we're in a lot of trouble whenever the lag in the earth's reaction finally catches up (not to say we might not have reached that naturally. Coming out of the Ice Age still, we may have problems knowing what our artificially raised new temperature is and what our non-GHG influenced result would have been). I'd much prefer we cut back on our CO2 emissions just to so we'll never tempt fate like that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by photon
Changes happen for a reason, and the only thing that fits the signature of the observed changes currently is warming due to human released CO2.
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Possible other reasons (and I don't say that I agree with them. Some arguments have scientific holes and are contended) include:
- Sun activity, using sun spots the Maunder Minimum as arguments for overreaction (where smoothing has been used in the 2000's and seems to hide the fact that the data doesn't agree with the hypothesis there)
- Geothermal emissions increasing (kind of a silly argument. Chances of us riding a slowing increasing heat generation from the earth is pretty low...I'm not even sure the science checks out on this)
- Still coming out of the Ice Age (If memory serves, we're still a bit below average)
Quote:
Originally Posted by photon
Sure, it's a question of which effect is greater. I think at this point the evidence is growing that the net effect of clouds is as a positive feedback (warming) and that if it is negative it's very small. |
That's what I'd be leaning towards. The reflection rate of vapour would logically seem pretty low compared to their absorption rate.