Voter Verdict:
CONSERVATIVE MINORITY PARLIAMENT
Notables Elected
TV personality Tina Keeper – Liberal
Former Ontario Social Services and Energy Minister John Baird – Conservative
Former Ontario Deputy Premier and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty – Conservative
Former MP Dawn Black – NDP
Former Ontario Health Minister Tony Clement – Conservative
Former Toronto Councillor Olivia Chow – NDP
Academic Michael Ignatieff – Liberal
Former Quebec Cabinet Minister Lawrence Cannon – Conservative
Prominent political activist Josée Verner – Conservative
Notables Defeated
Former MP Svend Robinson – NDP
Deputy PM Anne McLellan – Liberal
Treasury Board Minister Reg Alcock – Liberal
Former Governor-General Ed Schreyer – NDP
Agriculture Minister Andy Mitchell – Liberal
Government Leader Tony Valeri – Liberal
International Cooperation Minister Aileen Carroll – Liberal
Former Astronaut Marc Garneau – Liberal
Foreign Minister Pierre Pettigrew – Liberal
Children/Seniors Minister Tony Ianno – Liberal
Heritage Minister Liza Frulla – Liberal
Prominent MP Richard Marceau – Bloc Quebecois
Northern Affairs Minister Ethel Blondin-Andrew – Liberal
ELECTION HIGHLIGHTS
• The Conservative Party of Canada will form its first government since 1993, sending the Liberal Party to the Opposition benches. In doing so, Canadians have elected only the third minority government in the last 25 years (Clark – 1979; Martin - 2004) with Stephen Harper set to take office as Canada’s 22nd Prime Minister. This will be the only back-to-back minority governments formed in the same 25 year period.
• The Conservative Party capitalized on an effective election campaign to increase its seat count to 124 MPs from 99 in the last election. Liberals saw their seat count go from 135 MPs in the last election to 103 in the new Parliament. With these numbers, the Liberals will hold the title of Official Opposition in the next House of Commons. However, Paul Martin has indicated he will not lead the Liberals into the next election which has set off talk of an eventual leadership convention.
• While the Conservatives captured a smaller number of seats than most pollsters predicted, the NDP and Liberals captured more than most observers expected. Contradicting its own predictions at the beginning of the election, the Bloc Quebecois finished with fewer seats than it began with. The BQ reduced its seat count from 54 to 51. Growth in NDP support was registered on Election Day translating into 29 seats, up from 19 in the last election.
Conservative Priorities
While the first Conservative Throne Speech is expected to set out the government’s overall agenda, among the new government’s early priorities are expected to be:
o Accountability Act
o Crime bill
o GST reduction
o Parental Benefit ($1,200.00 per year)
o Addressing hospital wait times
What to Watch For
The Conservatives will require time to organize as they prepare to take power just as all parties will begin organizing for the next Parliament. The following are some key milestones (all dates are tentative) along the way:
January
‘Return of the writs’: Following the close of the polls, a formal process occurs where each returning office forwards documentation of the official riding results to Elections Canada and ultimately to the House of Commons. This confirms who the new (or returning) MP is for each riding. The reported deadline for return of all writs is February 20, 2006.
Cabinet Selection Process: Recent transition periods for a change of government from one party to another have ranged from 10-14 days. With his slate of MPs known, the Prime Minister-elect immediately begins intensive work with his formal transition team to determine the size and scope of Cabinet. Soon, contacts will begin with Conservative MPs asking them to take on certain responsibilities in the new government. Other early priorities are possible changes to the senior public service and assembling candidates for senior political staff to Cabinet Ministers. This work also includes determining appointments to Parliamentary Secretary positions.
February
Swearing-In of MPs: Following the return of the writs, MPs begin the process of being sworn in on Parliament Hill.
Party Caucus Meetings: Parties are likely to organize in a fairly swift fashion meetings of departing, returning, and newly elected MPs along with Senators of each party.
Swearing-In of new Cabinet: Ministers are sworn in and the new Government is announced (can include changes to the structure or ‘machinery of government’).
Departmental Briefings: Starting in most cases the day they are sworn in, Ministers (and any early staff) receive preliminary briefings from senior Departmental officials. There is also precedent for Prime Ministers to hold an initial Cabinet meeting before Ministers meet their Deputy Ministers for briefings.
March
Throne Speech/Return of the House of Commons: The House of Commons re-opens for the 39th Parliament beginning with a Speech from the Throne by the Governor General outlining the new Government’s priorities to House/Senate members.
April (TBD)
Budget 2006
June 23rd, 2006
Scheduled summer recess (subject to change)
Sept. 18th, 2006
Scheduled return of Parliament (subject to change)
The 39th Parliament
When convened, the new House of Commons and its Committees will operate – at least initially –under much the same rules of the last Parliament. For instance:
• Passage of Legislation: As the Liberals did in the last Parliament, the governing Conservatives will need to have support from the Opposition side of the House of Commons to get legislation approved and sent off to the Senate (155 votes are required for a majority in the 308 seat House of Commons).
• Control of Committees: The parties will negotiate over the coming weeks over how to split up membership of the Parliamentary Committees between Opposition and Government MPs. The split will likely give a majority of committee seats to the opposition. For example, 6 Conservatives per committee and 7 opposition MPs – with this scenario, the reality is the opposition will have 7 members and the Conservatives only 5 since the Chair only votes in the case of a tie. The ability of the Opposition to control the Committee’s destiny increases.
• Private Members’ Business: House rules were changed in the last Parliament and now require that all Private Members’ Bills – those bills that are introduced by individual MPs – must come to a vote in Parliament. In the past, only a very small number of Private Members’ Bills ever came to a vote. More use of Private Members’ Bills to advance significant policy issues is expected under a Conservative Government where more free votes have been promised to backbenchers.