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from Paul Lewis, writer for the guardian

There is widespread concern that the rioting will take root again tonight, and perhaps spread to new areas. I have had over a thousand people message me on Twitter this afternoon, many asking whether their home towns – and streets – will be next. That is impossible to predict, but it is by no means inevitable that the trouble will spread and escalate as it did last night.

There is admittedly intelligence we are picking up from BBM Messenger, Twitter and Facebook, indicating that some rioters are announcing new areas to attack and some talk – it is only that – of vigilante groups being set up. We're also getting confirmation of sporadic pockets of violence in places like Wolverhampton and West Bromwich. After the last three nights, I don't think anyone would reasonably forecast that tonight will be entirely uneventful.

That said, I don't think we should necessarily assume disorder on the scale of last night. An unprecedented law enforcement deterrence will be in place. The prime minister David Cameron has announced there will be 16,000 police on the streets in London tonight – last night, there were 6,000. Police have said they may use plastic bullets; a worrying prospect for anyone – including us journalists – planning to go out tonight.

There is also the less tangible social pressure that will be at work. A huge tide of public opinion is squarely against those who are rioting. I expect many mothers and fathers will tonight be refusing to let their children out of their front-doors.

No-one can reliably forecast what will happen next, but there is a chance all of that could result in a reduction in the violence.