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Originally Posted by MarchHare
I have to agree. I think a large part of the recent surge in support for the Conservatives is because Canadians have had enough of the Liberals and think they need some time in the penalty box (aka the opposition), but they're not comfortable the thought of a Conservative majority. If it looks like the CPC could form a majority, I think many swing voters in Ontario and Atlantic Canada and federalist voters in Quebec will return to the Liberal fold on election day, just like the last election.
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There's a major difference this time round though and that is that over half of the people polled have a favourable impression of Harper...56 % (only 38% for martin). That was certainly not the case last time around and it means that not only Conservative voters are warming up to him and like how he has handled himself. As well this poll was conducted after people knew the Tories had surged ahead and yet they haven't dropped. It makes it less likely that the last minute fear campaign will work this time. Also keep in mind that the last election had been called solely to catch the Tories off guard and they didn't have the time to craft the party policy/platform at a convention. This time they have. With a platform fully out there and the party policies fully out there it weakens the "hidden agenda" strategy.
As well many of the seats in Ontario and the Maritimes were close contests. It wouldn't take much of a swing in popular vote in those ridings to have avery different outcome. There is little doubt that in pretty much every riding in canada the liberal support has dropped while conservative and/or NDP fortunes have improved.
Maritimers have a history of voting both Tory and liberal and some NDP mixed in...simply convincing the public that they are center right and that harper isn't scary may be all that is necessary. Thus far they have certainly done that. And don't forget about martin trying to backpeddle out of the offshore revenues, a promise he made simply because when the Tories made that promise, the liberal support fell in the region last election. The attempted back peddle has not been forgotten.
I should have linked this article as well:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl...alDecision2006