Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Fan, Ph.D.
I think the "Chinese Threat" is overblown.
Their economy is still smaller than the US economy. Further, the strength of their economy is predicated on North American consumption. But given their population, they need their current economy to continue to grow at a rapid rate, which then requires the US to continue to increase their consumption at that rate.
At some (near) point in time, a country of 1 billion producers are not going to see sufficient demand from a country of ~400 million consumers. Their large stores of US Treasury has additionally trapped them into a corner (if they sell the US dollars they threaten strengthening their currency which in turn hurts their exports). Couple that with the inherent domestic demands of a billion people (how many ghost cities can they build to keep people busy?), and the environmental damage they're inflicting on their country...
It's not going to be all that pretty imo.
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All good points, this thread isn't about the imminence of a Chinese takeover. It just responded to the comment that without a strong military the Chinese will takeover which is just stupid. Conventional military might is simply not a major determinant of the new game among great power nations especially in the nuclear age.
With that said, the Chinese are by not means assured the next seat at the head of the global table but it looks likely just be sheer demographics and economics. As they develop they will develop their own consumer class which will more than outweigh the loss of the American consumer. At least that's what will happen if things go right for them.