Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Fan, Ph.D.
I think the "Chinese Threat" is overblown.
Their economy is still smaller than the US economy. Further, the strength of their economy is predicated on North American consumption. But given their population, they need their current economy to continue to grow at a rapid rate, which then requires the US to continue to increase their consumption at that rate.
At some (near) point in time, a country of 1 billion producers are not going to see sufficient demand from a country of ~400 million consumers. Their large stores of US Treasury has additionally trapped them into a corner (if they sell the US dollars they threaten strengthening their currency which in turn hurts their exports). Couple that with the inherent domestic demands of a billion people (how many ghost cities can they build to keep people busy?), and the environmental damage they're inflicting on their country...
It's not going to be all that pretty imo.
|
Not only that but their people are going to want to make a decent wage some day, and countries that are suffering because of their trade policies are going to eventually demand equal and fair access to Chinese markets.
And they can't keep their dollar artificially deflated forever.
Plus most of their larger industries are run by their military.