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Originally Posted by Hakan
The conservatives aren't polling anywhere near majority territory if you look at the regional breakdowns. I tell you, the amount of armchair experts around here is just funny.
Say the Conservatives pull off a miracle of 5 seats in Quebec then they would need another 151 of a possible 256 in the rest of Canada, with 105 of those seats being in Ontario 32 in Atlantic 54 in the prairies and 35 in BC and 3 in the NWT. If you give them all of the prairies and say 30 in BC then they're at 84 and they need to make another 67 in Ont and Atlantic. Give them 16 in Atlantic which is generous and they need 51 in Ontario. Sorry 51 seats in Ontario just ain't going to happen.
Therefore these polls numbers are skewed from landslides in the west but not the reality in the East. |
I'm not so certain that 51 seats in Ontario is out of the question for the Conservatives, depending on how moderate thier message is in the next two weeks, thier sitting at about a third plus in the poles which could translate to 50 out of 151 seats.
I think if the Liberal's throw out negative attack ads a lot of the voters are going to throw thier hands in the air and the voter totals will buckle for the Libs in Ontario.