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Originally Posted by Itse
I actually agree that it's possible that Android takes over as the biggest player on the field relatively fast. Things are changing, and there's some good incentives for companies to go the Android way.
As to the Nokia/Windows deal, it doesn't look good. Both companies have a terrible reputation in the smartphone business, and combining their "talents" and reputation could very easily mean a product that is simply unmarketable.
As to tablets, I think stories of them tailing off are premature, since first generation of business tablets is only starting to come out. Having seen so many over 50+ semi-luddites react to touchscreens with almost childlike excitement, they could be exactly what companies will want to give to those hard-to-teach employees, or anyone who just needs to do a couple of things. Tablets could also open up brand new markets, being so easy to carry and not needing a table to use. A lot of work is done outside the office environment. For example I'm thinking waitresses might start carrying tablets around pretty soon.
Of course, Windows could make it in the tablet market too. But they are handicapped by the fact that touchscreen users right now are mostly not using Windows. And for many these days the first computer is an Apple or an Android smartphone, so it's somewhat inevitable that some of that brand familiarity will remain once those kids start buying their own computers. So Windows needs to work hard just to keep their traditional market.
I think computing is changing, and I'm not at all convinced Microsoft really understands it. They still seem to be thinking big (example: the Windows Live mammoth), when many users are going smaller and simpler, getting used to apps and easily customizable software that do just the few things they need, with speed and ease of use being of primary concern.
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I would argue that the unified ecosystem Microsoft is
attempting to create shows a lot of foresight. The fragmented web application landscape is a disaster for developers today. The application I'm working on now needs to be fully tested and functional on about a dozen platforms once you take the various browsers, smartphones, and tablets into account.
If they can execute, they'll be a major player in the cross-platform future.
As people transition from PCs to tablets there's going to be a big demand for a buy-once, use anywhere application delivery system.
I'm skeptical that this sort of unified system is possible today, or that Microsoft will be the one to deliver it, but if nothing else they're going to push the market in that direction and I applaud them for that.