Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGrimm
A few thoughts come to mind (and yes I am pulling these numbers out of thin air):
- We just moved a 80% chance of a solid NHLer for 2 x 20% chances... Math calls this a fail.
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There are actually numbers for this available in the internet.
http://www.hockeydrunk.com/hockey/od...ing-a-nhl-game
Odds of a pick playing over 100 games:
1st round: 65%
2nd round: 34%
5th round: 14% (this is what we gave up, and Horak was a 5th rounder)
Out of two first rounders, the chance that at least one of them makes it over that line is ~56%, which is obviously worse than what you get for a 1st rounder, but not that much.
However, there is also a decent ~12% chance that both our picks make the grade, which you don't get with a singe pick. So mathematically, it's not that bad.
(Of course Erixon and Horak both propably have improved their odds from the day they were drafted.)
(Although IMO 100 games isn't much a line, it's a little over one full season. 200+ and I think we're talking decent picks.)