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chemgear · 05-30-2011, 10:23 AM

So I had a bit more of a closer look at the price bands to see the breakdown of why the CREB stats show housing prices are going up/flat.

It all comes down to the fact that the distribution of the homes that manage to sell has changed/shifted. Overall, it looks like the price of individual homes are going down (sales vs. list continues to be less than 100%, almost no bidding wars, price cuts updates, etc.) It's an interesting stat and how it can mask actual values.

Pulling April numbers from the CREB for 2011 and 2009:

http://www.creb.com/public/buyer-res...statistics.php

(You also have to love how they have this picture on their website for archived statistics.

)

Here are the sales for the various pricing bands (in thousands of $, April 2011, and April 2009 sales.)

0-199 1.5% 1.0%
200-299 10.9% 13.5%
300-349 14.7% 21.6%
350-399 17.4% 20.6%
400-449 14.1% 15.0%
450-499 10.5% 7.7%
500+ 30.9% 20.6%

Hopefully, I didn't mess up the quickie summary. But as you can see, it looks like the first time home buyer market is getting cut off fairly well. The value of an individual home isn't going up on average, it's the fact that bottom half of the entire market has slowed down in a big way to make average "sales price" relatively stable. It is also why the number of sales is so low (and continues to be so poor) versus historicals.

I wonder how that pans out in the longer term with the mid market/higher market needing to sell off their starter home in order to complete their transaction for the more expensive home. As always, interesting times.

05-30-2011, 10:23 AM	#1874
chemgear Franchise Player Join Date: Feb 2010 Exp:	So I had a bit more of a closer look at the price bands to see the breakdown of why the CREB stats show housing prices are going up/flat. It all comes down to the fact that the distribution of the homes that manage to sell has changed/shifted. Overall, it looks like the price of individual homes are going down (sales vs. list continues to be less than 100%, almost no bidding wars, price cuts updates, etc.) It's an interesting stat and how it can mask actual values. Pulling April numbers from the CREB for 2011 and 2009: http://www.creb.com/public/buyer-res...statistics.php (You also have to love how they have this picture on their website for archived statistics. ) Here are the sales for the various pricing bands (in thousands of $, April 2011, and April 2009 sales.) 0-199 1.5% 1.0% 200-299 10.9% 13.5% 300-349 14.7% 21.6% 350-399 17.4% 20.6% 400-449 14.1% 15.0% 450-499 10.5% 7.7% 500+ 30.9% 20.6% Hopefully, I didn't mess up the quickie summary. But as you can see, it looks like the first time home buyer market is getting cut off fairly well. The value of an individual home isn't going up on average, it's the fact that bottom half of the entire market has slowed down in a big way to make average "sales price" relatively stable. It is also why the number of sales is so low (and continues to be so poor) versus historicals. I wonder how that pans out in the longer term with the mid market/higher market needing to sell off their starter home in order to complete their transaction for the more expensive home. As always, interesting times.