Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
Not necessarily passing up a higher ranked player on your list. If your scouts have a good idea that no one nearby will take the guy you would have taken at #13, you might be able to trade down to #18, pick up a 2nd rounder and still take the exact same guy you were going to take at #13.
Pretty sure this happened the year we took Erixon. I believe we liked Erixon, would have taken him at our original draft position, but our staff thought he'd still be around if we dealt down, so we picked up a free pick and still got the guy we liked best at the pre-trade down position.
I think you are making the mistake of thinking that draft lists of teams will be very similar. It is almost guaranteed that teams will disagree wildly on who the best players are. The draft looks a little wide open after the first few, as Hrdina notes (and as is which is almost always the case if you look back.) Which means that a guy you have ranked #10 could slip to the late teens in certain scenarios.
Trading down does not necessarily mean passing up more highly skilled players. It has worked out for teams and also has not. You cannot say beforehand whether it would be worth it or not.
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Well if you look at the numbers its obvious that for whatever reason once you get out of the top 15 picks your chances of the selected player making your roster and playing on a regular basis are a lot worse. Even lower outside of the first round. Take that for what it is but if we're continually selecting players that are 5-10 positions below everyone else and trading down its not a good thing. Especially if these players we're dropping down for still take 3-4 years to turn into average or below average nhler's in the end.
Based on our track record we have yet to trade down and steal someone out from everyone else...infact we've traded down and missed several impactful players for the likes of guys like pelech and chucko. I don't think getting another player like these guys really helps our franchise at this point.