Quote:
Originally Posted by CofR
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There's no rule saying that only character and project players can be selected after the 13th pick... I agree that we need more high end talent in our prospect pool, but our prospect pool also needs more prospects.
In a draft that's wide open after the top 8 would you rather have 1 pick in the top 100, or 2 picks in the top 100?
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There definitely is no rule I agree, but as the statistics show its exponentially more difficult to grab a player that even pans out after every pick you drop down.
In the 2008 draft 10 of the top 15 picks have at least 70GP. 8 of the remaining 196 have accomplished that feat. In the 2007, 11 of the top 15 have at least 70GP. 12 of the remaining 196 have accomplished the same feat. In 2006, 13 of the top 15 picks have played at least 70 games. 23 of the remaining 196 players have also done so.
Based on the numbers over those three draft years, picking at 13th is likely going to give us a 70-75% chance of landing a solid player within 2-3 years. Picking outside the top 15 gives us about an 8% chance of doing the same. We don't need another 4 year project player in our system.
I'll definitely take the 13th pick.