Quote:
Originally Posted by 8sPOT
And I think this is a great strategy, that second pick is an important asset IMO.
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I don't know why so many people think this way.....unless you're in a ridiculously deep draft like 2004 there's no point in trading down for more picks later on. The percentages just complete work against you as you move down the ladder. Just because the pool looks diluted from spots 5-20 doesn't mean you won't pick an nhler.
A first rounder has an astronomically better chance of being an nhl player then a player chosen in any other round. It goes down exponentially every round and this is backed up by a huge sample size.
63% of first rounders become regular nhl players. By the time the second round hits you're down to 25% becoming regular nhler's. After the second round were already at a miniscule 12% chance.
http://proicehockey.about.com/od/pro...ft_success.htm
I'd bet if you look at the numbers for top 15 picks the 63% becomes something like 75 or 80%. Trading away or down in the first round is probably the worst strategy gm's can use.