^ Your projections of 50% of the 26 Liberal/third party seats going to the Liberals could be a stretch if those seats are in Quebec were the Bloq could get 60+ of the 75 total seats
does the following information change your projections for the undecided vote? Rhetorical question!
The survey found that 14 per cent of undecided voters said the criminal investigation made it certain they would not vote Liberal, while 25 per cent said it made them less likely to vote for the Grits.
"In a tightening election race, these numbers would obviously be a source of some concern for the Liberal party," said Decima CEO Bruce Anderson.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl.../BNStory/Front
By the way, that is a very informative site. Of the 85 'too close to call' seats, 49 have liberal incumbents, 26 conservatives, 6 NDP, 3 BQ and 1 independent. And as I alluded to above, 14 of the 26 Liberal/third party seats are in Quebec, and the Liberals currently hold 11 of those seats. Its a fair bet the Liberals will lose most of those given the strength of the BQ in the Quebec polls