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octothorp · 12-31-2005, 02:26 PM

The odds are still against the Tories, even in a dead heat. If you look at the Election Prediction Project (http://electionprediction.org/2005_fed/index.html), they currently have the Liberals at 85, the Conservatives at 73, and 85 too close to call.

Not every party is in the running in every undecided riding, however. Here's how the undecided seats break down in terms of parties in the running:

Conservative/Liberal : 49
Conservative/liberal/NDP : 18 seats
Conservative/third party : 7 seats
Liberal/third party : 26 seats

So, let's give an optomistic (for the Tories) projection of the Conservatives winning 65% of the seats they're competing directly with the Liberals for. That would give the Tories 33 seats, while the Liberals would get 16. The Tories are likely to win a higher percentage in the ridings they are battling the NDP for (75%) for another 5 seats (think of these as anti-liberal ridings). Meanwhile, the Liberals will win a higher percentage in the anti-PC ridings (say, 50%), for 13 seats. Of the 18 seats involved in a three-way race, these will trend toward the liberals, but even with a Conservative bias (say, a 45/35/20 split in favour of the Tories), for 8/6/4 seats for the three parties.
Totals for the parties would be:
Conservative: 119
Liberal: 120

That's close, but in this analysis I gave all possible bounces to the Conservatives and they still come up a little short. I think a far more realistic projection would see a split in the Liberal/Conservative seats (25 seats each), 60% each in the third-party seats (4 Cons seats, 15 Liberal seats), and a slight Liberal bias in the three-way seats (45%/35/20, for 6 Tory seats and 8 Grit), resulting in 133 Liberal seats and 108 Conservative.

province by province breakdown of Conservative races:

0 of 14 in Quebec.
3 of 4 in Nova Scotia,
3 of 3 in NB (2 3-way races)
29 of 35 in Ontario (6 3-way)
3 of 3 in Manitoba (1 3-way) 1 non-liberal race
5 of 5 in Sask (3 3-way) 1 non-liberal
1 of 1 in Alberta
16 of 19 in BC (5 3-way races, 1 4-way race) 5 non-liberal
0 of 1 in North

12-31-2005, 02:26 PM	#5
octothorp Franchise Player Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: not lurking Exp:	The odds are still against the Tories, even in a dead heat. If you look at the Election Prediction Project (http://electionprediction.org/2005_fed/index.html), they currently have the Liberals at 85, the Conservatives at 73, and 85 too close to call. Not every party is in the running in every undecided riding, however. Here's how the undecided seats break down in terms of parties in the running: Conservative/Liberal : 49 Conservative/liberal/NDP : 18 seats Conservative/third party : 7 seats Liberal/third party : 26 seats So, let's give an optomistic (for the Tories) projection of the Conservatives winning 65% of the seats they're competing directly with the Liberals for. That would give the Tories 33 seats, while the Liberals would get 16. The Tories are likely to win a higher percentage in the ridings they are battling the NDP for (75%) for another 5 seats (think of these as anti-liberal ridings). Meanwhile, the Liberals will win a higher percentage in the anti-PC ridings (say, 50%), for 13 seats. Of the 18 seats involved in a three-way race, these will trend toward the liberals, but even with a Conservative bias (say, a 45/35/20 split in favour of the Tories), for 8/6/4 seats for the three parties. Totals for the parties would be: Conservative: 119 Liberal: 120 That's close, but in this analysis I gave all possible bounces to the Conservatives and they still come up a little short. I think a far more realistic projection would see a split in the Liberal/Conservative seats (25 seats each), 60% each in the third-party seats (4 Cons seats, 15 Liberal seats), and a slight Liberal bias in the three-way seats (45%/35/20, for 6 Tory seats and 8 Grit), resulting in 133 Liberal seats and 108 Conservative. province by province breakdown of Conservative races: 0 of 14 in Quebec. 3 of 4 in Nova Scotia, 3 of 3 in NB (2 3-way races) 29 of 35 in Ontario (6 3-way) 3 of 3 in Manitoba (1 3-way) 1 non-liberal race 5 of 5 in Sask (3 3-way) 1 non-liberal 1 of 1 in Alberta 16 of 19 in BC (5 3-way races, 1 4-way race) 5 non-liberal 0 of 1 in North