[GirlySports]

So lets break this down... out of the 142 seats that the Conservatives have.. what seats can they lose and what seats can they gain. Can they get a majority?

I was looking at threehundredeight.com and to me, these are the important races of the evening.

BC
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca
Held by Liberals but no incumbent
Polls: CPC 32.0 LIB 27.2 NDP 32.2
Possible CPC GAIN

Surrey North
Held by Conservative incumbent Donna Cadman
Polls: CPC 37.3 NDP 42.5
Possible CPC LOSS

Vancouver Island North
Held by Conservative incumbent John Duncan
Polls: CPC 42.0 NDP 47.1
Possible CPC LOSS


Saskatchewan
Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar
Held by Conservative incumbent Kelly Brock
Polls: CPC 44.7 NDP 47.3
Possible CPC LOSS

Ontario
Ajax—Pickering
Held by Liberal incumbent Mark Holland
Polls: CPC 42.0 LIB 41.4
Possible CPC GAIN

Brampton—Springdale
Held by Liberal incumbent Ruby Dhalla
Polls: CPC 39.5 LIB 39.6
Possible CPC GAIN

Brampton West
Held by Liberal incumbent Ruby Dhalla
Polls: CPC 39.3 LIB 38.2
Possible CPC GAIN

Eglinton—Lawrence
Held by Liberal incumbent Joe Volpe
Polls: CPC 39.9 LIB 43.0
Possible CPC GAIN

Guelph
Held by Liberal incumbent Frank Valeriote
Polls: CPC 30.6 LIB 30.4 NDP 22.5
Possible CPC GAIN

Kingston and the Islands
Held by Liberals but no incumbent
Polls: CPC 34.9 LIB 32.4 NDP 24.4
Possible CPC GAIN

Mississauga South
Held by Liberal incumbent Paul Szabo
Polls: CPC 39.8 LIB 42.7
Possible CPC GAIN

Oshawa
Held by Conservative incumbent Colin Carrie
Polls: CPC 39.7 NDP 40.8
Possible CPC LOSS

Simcoe—Grey
Held by Independant incumbent Helena Guergis
Polls: CPC 31.6 IND 22.6
CPC GAIN

Quebec
Beauport—Limoilou
Held by Conservative incumbent Silvie Boucher
Polls: CPC 29.1 NDP 33.7 BQ 24.8
Possible CPC LOSS

Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
Held by Conservative incumbent Silvie Boucher
Polls: CPC 32.1 NDP 34.6
Possible CPC LOSS

Pontiac
Held by Conservative incumbent Lawrence Cannon (Minister of Foreign Affairs)
Polls: CPC 26.7 NDP 37.6
CPC LOSS

Nova Scotia
Central Nova
Held by Conservative incumbent Peter MacKay (Minister of Defense)
Polls: CPC 36.4 NDP 42.4
Possible CPC LOSS

South Shore—St. Margaret's
Held by Conservative incumbent Gerald Keddy
Polls: CPC 34.3 NDP 42.1
CPC LOSS

Newfoundland
Avalon
Held by Liberal incumbent Scott Andrews
Polls: CPC 54.8 LIB 31.5
CPC GAIN

Random—Burin—St. George's
Held by Liberal incumbent Judy Foote
Polls: CPC 40.1 LIB 36.5
Possible CPC GAIN

So by my list I count 11 Gains and 9 losses for +2
They need a magic number of +12 to get a majority.
Can they hold onto enough seats in this list to get there?
Is Peter MacKay really going to lose his seat? That would be a huge story.