Quote:
Originally Posted by oilers_fan
What is your thinking transplant, when polls are showing things a lot closer than that.
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Polls are showing popular vote. I am just cobbling together riding by riding stuff. There are about 50 to close to call with the latest data, some of which is really quite old.
Clearly the NDP are taking away votes from the Liberals and the Bloc, not so much from the Tories. As a result, particularly in about 15 ridings in Ontario and BC, there will be a real "vote split" on the left which will aloow the CPC to come up the middle in a 1/3 of them.
Right now the lowest number possible (using a 5% gap from 1st to 2nd to call it "to close to call") of Tory seats is 131. So in the remaining ridings unless they lose every single one (including the ones where they have the lead in) I am predicting that those ridings will split much like the rest of the results minus a few that are certain to fall one way or the other based on historic performances in those ridings.
Completely and utterly unscientific, but using a multitude of different polls, and their forecasts on the last election and how accurate they were, and the fact that CPC support is alomst identical right now as to where it was when this election was called...thats my best guess.