[Bownesian]

Originally Posted by Slava

If I were a Harper strategist at this point I would be terrified. The NDP surge is proving more and more real and every poll I've read seems to have a sentence that says something along the lines of the NDP showing no sign of a plateau. Some will say that we'll see how Jack does with some intense pressure and things like that, but there are two problems with that:

A) Its really late in the game

B) The CPC has already tried that for the past week....and the numbers are still rising.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/electio...28-BallotE.pdf

I would read Nanos' poll today as the NDP plateauing. Given the steep curve of the previous three days and the three day rolling poll window, a deceleration could mean a plateau or even a drop in support.

The way I read all of this is:

1. The Conservative vote has remained static for the entire election compared to their '08 numbers. The oscillation in their support has pretty much been within the margin of error. My interpretation of this is that the Conservative baseline vote % is pretty high but their maximum vote % is also pretty low. i.e. Conservative voters are entrenched but so is the anti-conservative vote.
2. The poll changes reflect a realignment among the non-conservative parties' vote share. Liberal, Green and Bloc voters become NDP voters everywhere except Ontario.

So, there are several big questions:

1. Will there be any slowing in the NDP momentum over the weekend (will the non-conservative vote continue to concentrate with the NDP)?
2. Similarly, will the John Manley "blue liberal" vote collapse on election day, especially in Toronto and Vancouver?
3. Will there be any changes in vote efficiency as a result of this change - will there be any splits that favour either side?

I think we'll know the answer to #1 by Sunday morning when the 3-day tracking polls reflect the full realization and discussion among the Media and Canadians of the change in the NDP vote.

I think #2 may well happen. Once it becomes apparent that we are facing either an NDP government or Official Opposition, Ontarians may swing to oppose an NDP goverment, given their track record there provincially.

I think that #3 may well be a wash but this is where the election will be decided. I can imagine a scenario in Quebec where the race was Conservative vs. Bloc before becomes a split favourable to the CPC while three-way races in Vancouver and the Maritime Provinces become two-way and the CPC lose seats.