Quote:
Originally Posted by mykalberta
I still only trust Nanos but even they have the NDP polling higher.
http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp
I find it hard to believe anyone who would vote Conservative would switch and vote NDP - Liberal sure but NDP?
My prediction is they started at 16% they are at 31% they will end up with 23% of the vote nation wide. |
The Nanos result is consistent with all of the other polls (i.e. w/in the Margin of Error) except for Ipsos-Reid, and their data is almost two weeks old. All of them show the Liberals collapsing to the low 20s, the Tories in the mid-30s and the NDP at around 30. I think it's a safe bet that voter intentions are in that range currently. The question is how it translates into seats. The NDP face regional disadvantages and disadvantages in terms of GOTV. Both of those could bring their numbers down. I personally think 98 seats (EKOS' projection) is crazy, but I'm basing that only on my own incredulity, not on anything really concrete.
Who said this election would be boring?