Well, I thought I should resurrect this thread, since I do like the idea of one thread for "discussions" and another for "polls, prognostications and such."
This snoozefest of an election has suddenly become pretty interesting. EKOS is now projecting 98 seats for the NDP....
Meanwhile, Nanos doesn't (AFAIK) do seat-level projections, but has the NDP within 5 points of the Tories, who have dropped to 36.4% from a high of nearly 40 earlier in the Campaign.
Ipsos-Reid has Layton ahead of all other contenders on general favourability ratings, pretty much confirming him as the big winner coming out of the debates. Harper is a close second, and Ignatieff isn't even invited to the party (13% think he'd be a good PM, compared to 45% for Layton. (Ipsos-Reid's last national poll was Apr. 21--with data collected from 18-20th, so that data is pretty stale--but it shows Harper in majority territory)
A Forum Research Poll (Apr. 25th and 26th) has the NDP within three points of the Tories. I can't seem to find the information about the margin of error for this one--if someone points me in the direction, I'll post more info about the methodology, since this is the most alarming for Harper, and so radically different from the Ipsos-Reid poll (which seems to have a slight Tory "house effect" relative to other pollsters. That doesn't mean they're wrong, though)
Angus Reid has the Tories at 35% and the NDP at 30%.
My two cents:
There are two factors that may give solace to Harper:
1. The NDP's GOTV operation is (according to what I've read) not great, so they may underperform their numbers slightly on election day.
2. Greater NDP strength generally comes at the expense of Liberals, and given vote splitting in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, the Tories may be able to gain some seats there.
However, there are some things that may be keeping Harper up at night.
1. The trendlines are moving toward the NDP--and they're moving that way fast. A lot of people make their decision late in the campaign (like, within the last 48 hours) and you should always be careful about a party with momentum late in the game. If these trendlines continue, we may see HIGHER levels of NDP support on election day than the polls today (which by then will be a week old) are showing. (I kind of doubt it, because of the GOTV issue, but it's possible)
2. Harper has spent the entire campaign running against Ignatieff, who had low favourability ratings and low charisma (much like the PM himself) and didn't seem to be prepared for an election. The game has now changed, and Ignatieff is a non-factor. Harper is now running against a candidate with high favourability ratings, plenty of charisma and a clear vision for change. He's not prepared for that kind of campaign, and it may be too late to change gears.
My own prediction is that the NDP will -- slightly --underperform their poll numbers on election day, but will wind up as the official opposition to a weakened minority government led by Harper.
What will make things really interesting is if somehow the Liberals manage to hold on to the balance of power: will Harper swallow his pride and form a coalition with the Liberals to remain as PM? (or, will the Liberals quietly prop him up?) Will the Liberals join forces with the NDP and become the coalition boogeyman that Harper has been going on and on about?
Of course, if the Liberals are completely annihilated (which is possible--they're looking dismal at the moment) then they won't be any help to anybody.
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